SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211855
MNZ000-212100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN MN.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211855Z - 212100Z
BKN BAND OF TSTMS MAY POSE RISK FOR A FEW FUNNELS...HAIL NEAR SVR
LEVELS...AND/OR BRIEF/SMALL TORNADO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING. FUNNEL WAS REPORTED IN BIG STONE COUNTY AT 1825Z.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW OVER NWRN MN NNW FAR...FCST TO MOVE
SEWD ACROSS WRN MN INVOF COMPACT BUT WELL-DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION. ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS AHEAD OF CONVECTION ONLY ARE IN
40S F...AIR MASS TO ITS IMMEDIATE W AND BEHIND WARM FRONT FEATURES
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WITH TEMPS 50S F...BENEATH STEEP
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
YIELD MLCAPE 100-300 J/KG...MOST OF IT IN LOWEST 3 KM AGL. ERN
PORTION OF THIS BUOYANT AIR MASS SLIGHTLY OVERLAPS WITH CHANNEL OF
ENHANCED SFC VORTICITY ALONG WARM FRONT/CONVECTIVE BAND...WHICH MAY
BUILD SOMEWHAT FARTHER S ACROSS SWRN MN BEFORE DISSIPATING. THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 22Z.
..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 45209628 46499602 47609603 47389549 46929476 46549465
44529504 44089552 44289587 45209628
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