MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0579

ACUS11 KWNS 220211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220210
FLZ000-220315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 220210Z - 220315Z

A STRONG TO LOWER END SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUST RISK MAY MOVE
ONSHORE NEAR THE TAMPA/ST. PETE METRO IN A FEW HOURS. A POTENTIALLY
GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE FARTHER S WHERE A MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND POSE AN ISOLD DMGG WIND
AND PERHAPS ISOLD TORNADO THREAT CONTINGENT LARGELY UPON SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LATEST SURFACE/RADAR MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN INTENSIFYING QLCS 40 MI
W OF PINELLAS COUNTY MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST AS TEMPS HOLD STEADY
NEAR 70 DEG F NEAR THE COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH/ATTENDANT VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE ERN
GULF -- AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO AID MAINTAINING UPDRAFT VIGOR FOR THE QLCS THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WITH THAT STATED...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OVER
THE REGION DURING THE PAST 24 HRS HAS LIMITED THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY VIA MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DESPITE MID 60S DEWPOINTS /REF.
00Z TBW RAOB/. FARTHER S...THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SLIGHTLY
GREATER MLCAPE /400-800 J/KG/ WILL DEVELOP AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO RECOVER. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES OWING TO THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN INCREASING SWLY LLJ /35 KTS/ BY
06Z MAY LEAD TO GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD UPDRAFT ROTATION AND
POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO RISKS.

..SMITH.. 04/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 25648193 27128285 28218303 28708234 28628167 27808114
25788077 24768118 24648164 25648193

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