MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0586

ACUS11 KWNS 260312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260311
WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-260515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO INTO CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187...

VALID 260311Z - 260515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187
CONTINUES.

AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS A LARGE
AREA FROM NERN MO/CNTRL IL EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

ISOLATED HAIL STORMS PERSIST OVER WRN IL...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD AND
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN FROM SRN IL INTO
IND THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EWD. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY
CYCLE UP AND DOWN AS IT TRAVELS SEWD ACROSS IL...PRODUCING HAIL.
WHILE SOME CIN EXISTS...IT IS NOT FORECAST TO TOTALLY CAP THE
AREA...AND PARAMETERS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL.

FARTHER E...INTO SRN OH AND ERN KY...A SEVERE STORM HAS FORMED ON
THE WRN FRINGE OF A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION...HAVING
ACCESS TO BETTER LAPSE RATES/MOISTURE. OTHER ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING
ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT WLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER KY. THIS BROAD AREA
OF LIFT SHOULD PERSIST...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY OUTRUN THE BEST
INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...THE BEST THREAT OF HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WANING AFTER 06Z INTO THE WRN VIRGINIAS.

..JEWELL.. 04/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
DVN...

LAT...LON 38389012 39139132 39719159 40199140 40349080 40118976
39808805 39738578 39608394 39298313 38328204 37708210
37248242 37128358 37478786 37868923 38389012

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