MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0626

ACUS11 KWNS 300332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300331
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-300530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN OK...SWRN MO...NRN PANHANDLE OF
TX...SRN KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203...205...

VALID 300331Z - 300530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
203...205...CONTINUES.

CONTINUE WW 205. WW 203 MAY BE CLEARED OVER KS BEHIND INITIAL
MCS...ALTHOUGH TRAILING TSTMS OVER NRN TX PANHANDLE PORTION OF WW
STILL WILL POSE THREAT FOR SVR HAIL. MCS AND ITS RELATED GUST FRONT
WILL MERGE WITH WRN LIMB OF OK/KS TSTM BAND DISCUSSED BELOW...WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND SVR POTENTIAL POSSIBLE FOR
NWRN OK. NET RESULT MAY BE LENGTHY CORRIDOR OF NUMEROUS TSTMS WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SVR HAIL/GUSTS AND OCNL TORNADO RISK...FROM CENTRAL
MO TO TX PANHANDLE.

BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...HAS
CONSOLIDATED ESSENTIALLY DIAGONALLY ACROSS WW 205 FROM
DEWEY/WOODWARD COUNTIES OK ENEWD TO BENTON COUNTY MO. PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NNEWD TO COVER MORE OF SRN KS
DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. EPISODIC
MESOCYCLONE INTENSIFICATIONS WILL ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL LOCALLY
IN ONE OR TWO PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS.

ERN BRANCH OF LLJ WAS EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA AT 30-40 KT
ACROSS WRN/NRN OK...AND IS EXPECTED TO VEER GRADUALLY THROUGH
REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SFC. MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT...SAMPLED AS SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S OVER NRN OK...SERN
KS AND SWRN MO...WILL SLOW DIABATIC SFC COOLING ENOUGH TO KEEP
EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS SFC-BASED FOR TSTM BAND THROUGH AT LEAST
6Z. RELATED CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY MINIMIZED MLCINH WAS EVIDENT IN
FCST SOUNDINGS AND PLANAR ANALYSES...ALONG WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM
AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER SWRN MO TO 2500 J/KG OVER W-CENTRAL/SWRN OK.
THIS WILL REMAIN JUXTAPOSED WITH ROUGHLY 50-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES. MEAN WIND AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ALIGNED
STRONGLY PARALLEL TO MAIN TSTM PLUME...SUGGESTING CONTINUED
PREDOMINANCE OF LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36190315 36420231 36739986 37729925 37689812 37719700
38069492 38569246 37499288 35839557 35659813 35369988
35970001 36190315

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