MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0640

ACUS11 KWNS 010238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010237
TXZ000-010430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN/W-CENTRAL/SW TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210...213...

VALID 010237Z - 010430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
210...213...CONTINUES.

REMAINDER WW 209 HAS BEEN CLEARED. WRN PORTIONS WW 210 MAY BE
CLEARED BEFORE SCHEDULED 4Z EXPIRATION. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
DRYLINE RETREATING NWWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION.
WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG
OUTFLOW-REINFORCED/RETREATING DRYLINE...PROBABILITY OF THIS WILL
DIMINISH WITH TIME AS MLCINH INCREASES. REMAINING CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS GARZA/KENT/STONEWALL COUNTIES...AS OF 230Z...REMAINS IN
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
2000-3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...ALTHOUGH
MLCINH WILL INCREASE WITH TIME IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW REGION. PRIND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 6Z.

SRN PORTIONS W 213 MAY BE CANCELED BEHIND MCS MOVING EWD TOWARD
AREAS BETWEEN DRT-JCT. THIS COMPLEX STILL MAY POSE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER SRN PORTIONS EDWARDS PLATEAU SWD TO RIO
GRANDE REGION...PERHAPS LINKING WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVING
EWD FROM SERRANIAS DEL BURRO REGION OF COAHUILA. HOWEVER...RADAR
ANIMATIONS INDICATE GUST FRONT HAS SURGED WELL AHEAD OF BAND OF
GREATEST REFLECTIVITY.

..EDWARDS.. 05/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 29330123 29840093 30360051 30850070 31960102 33110140
33810020 33559867 31869858 30909875 29579922 28479995
28160026 28650053 29140068 29290083 29330123

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