DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090433
SWODY1
SPC AC 090430

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT TUE MAY 08 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN STATES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY AND PROGRESS EWD...REACHING THE ERN STATES BY
LATE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS OFFSHORE OF A
MAJORITY OF THE EAST AND GULF COASTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING ORIENTED
WSWWD/WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA INTO S TX.

FARTHER W...A NRN BAJA UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EWD INTO NRN
MEXICO...WHILE A CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH MAINTAINS UPSLOPE WINDS
ACROSS SRN/WRN TX AND NM.

...SERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC /AROUND 5.5 TO 6.0 C/KM PER AREA
00Z SOUNDINGS/...WITH UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS REFLECTING LITTLE POTENTIAL
FOR THE ADVECTION OF STEEPER RATES DESPITE A SUBTLE STRENGTHENING IN
MID LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING AS OF 04Z. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/REMNANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
LIMIT POTENTIAL DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING...POSSIBLY HINDERING GREATER
DESTABILIZATION. IN AREAS THAT CAN SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE
...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG A
SEWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT AND ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE PREVIOUS CONVECTION. WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST...UPPER FORCING WILL BE LIMITED...AND THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD RESPONSE WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS SUCH...GENERALLY WEAKLY ORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF DMGG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO STEEPEN.

...S TX...
WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AS SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS BY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY THEN POTENTIALLY DRIFT EWD
INTO S TX AMIDST MODEST DEEP LAYER WLYS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL/DMGG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

..HURLBUT/PETERS.. 05/09/2012

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