DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091253
SWODY1
SPC AC 091251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2012

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN GULF CST INTO THE
CAROLINAS/SE VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE TILT UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY TROUGH APPEARS TO BE AMPLIFYING
ATTM AND SHOULD FURTHER AMPLIFY AS JET STREAK NOW OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD ADVANCES SSE INTO IL/IND. THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE MID
OH VLY THIS EVE...AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THU...ASSUMING A
MORE NEUTRAL TILT IN THE PROCESS. ELSEWHERE...NW MEXICO UPR LOW
EXPECTED TO TURN E ACROSS NRN SONORA TODAY/TNGT...AND BE LOCATED S
OF EL PASO BY 12Z THU.

AT THE SFC...DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GRT LKS/MS VLY
TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY E/SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...CAROLINAS...AND GA. THE LEADING WIND SHIFT SHOULD REACH A
NYC-ORF-FLO-VAD-VPS LINE BY EVE...AND MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS LATER TODAY.

...NERN GULF/GA TO CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN/EVE...
COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SE ACROSS AL/GA/N FL...AND E
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA/MD/DE LATER TODAY AND TNGT. THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT INVOF FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS...BUT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.50
INCHES/. POCKETS OF MODERATE LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION WILL
NEVERTHELESS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NERN
GULF CST AND OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS/ERN VA...WHERE AFTN SBCAPE COULD
REACH 1500 J/KG.

WINDS ACROSS THE SLGT RISK REGION...INITIALLY MODEST...WILL INCREASE
WITH TIME AS UPR TROUGH AMPLIFIES ESEWD. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA...WHERE 500 MB WSWLY FLOW WILL
APPROACH 40 KTS BY EVE. COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPR DIVERGENCE IN
DEVELOPING JET ENTRANCE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH UPR TROUGH...SETUP
THERE MAY YIELD A FEW LOOSELY-ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS WITH STRONG
TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WINDS INTO EARLY TNGT. FARTHER S...SFC
HEATING AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LOW-TO-MID LVL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
MORE WIDELY SCTD...W-TO-E MOVING STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS OVER S
GA/N FL.

...S TX LATER TODAY/TNGT...
MOIST...POST COLD-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE MEXICO THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD
WITH 30 KT WLY MID LVL FLOW...AND COULD AFFECT S TX WITH A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND LATE THIS AFTN INTO
TNGT. ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LARGELY
ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGEST THAT ANY SVR THREAT WILL
REMAIN ISOLD.

...SE AZ/SRN NM INTO FAR W TX THIS AFTN/EVE...
WWD-MOVING LOW-LVL OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAYS TSTMS HAS MOISTENED THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND SRN/ERN AZ. TODAY THE REGION
WILL REMAIN IN ZONE OF MODERATE ELY MID LVL FLOW ON N SIDE OF
MEXICAN UPR LOW. THIS SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW PULSE STORMS WITH
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL EWD INTO FAR W TX. A LIMITED THREAT ALSO WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN SE AZ/SRN NM...WHERE
INVERTED-VEE TYPE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED
BY SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 05/09/2012

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