DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130513
SWODY1
SPC AC 130511

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NM INTO FAR WEST
TX...

...SRN ROCKIES/FAR WEST TX...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST DIGGING SEWD TOWARD UT/CO. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 21Z ENSURING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THE DIURNAL
MAXIMUM FOR HEATING. GIVEN THAT CONVECTION HAS READILY DEVELOPED
ACROSS CO/NM THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY1 PERIOD...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
INITIATE OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
EXTEND ACROSS ERN AZ/SWRN NM INTO FAR WEST TX AS CONVECTION EVOLVES.
RESULTANT TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE
AS UPDRAFTS INGEST MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT SEVERE THREAT THOUGH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WOULD SUGGEST A RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AS WELL. ALTHOUGH
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE RISK AREA...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LFC LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 3KM AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT. LATE IN THE PERIOD SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS COULD LOOSELY ORGANIZE AS THEY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS SRN NM
INTO FAR WEST TX AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES INTO THE
BIG BEND REGION.

...FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN TN...

UPPER VORT MAX IS SHEARING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS AL INTO NRN GA BY 18Z. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FEATURE A LONGER WAVE TROUGH WILL LAG ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS AHEAD OF UPPER VORT
SHOULD LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE MORE THAN A 5% RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS.

..DARROW/COHEN.. 05/13/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.