DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161546
SWODY1
SPC AC 161544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NY/PA AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...

...NORTHEAST STATES...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WHILE A 70+ KNOT MID LEVEL JET
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSES INTO NY/VT. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN OH INTO LAKE ONTARIO
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT BOTH BOUNDARIES WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LATER TODAY
WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PA/NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST CONVECTION MAY FORM
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHEAST PA.
STRONG HEATING WILL PROMOTE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL HELP YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG. STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF VT/NH AND WESTERN MA/CT BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN AREAS FARTHER EAST...AND ACROSS THE
NYC AREA.

...EASTERN CAROLINAS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN TODAY ALONG
THE SEABREEZE OF EASTERN SC/NC. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SUFFICIENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A FEW INTENSE
CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART/SMITH.. 05/16/2012

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