DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171633
SWODY1
SPC AC 171631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. ONE SUCH TROUGH IS NOW OVER CENTRAL CO AND
WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THIS REGION...BUT STRONG HEATING AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE VERY
HIGH-BASED...BUT MAY BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN
THREAT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO INTO THE
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE ORE/NORTHERN CA
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADING PARTS
OF ID/MT/WY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ID/WESTERN WY
AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO MT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
A WEAK UPPER LOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER SC/GA. MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS EXTEND FROM PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN GA/SC WHERE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.
WEAK FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..HART/SMITH.. 05/17/2012

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