DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 221730
SWODY2
SPC AC 221729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES
OVER SWRN CANADA/NWRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD...ENTERING
THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO THE N-CNTRL CONUS BY EARLY THU. BELT OF
STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD BECOME CENTERED FROM THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY WED EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...NRN
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE INVOF SERN MANITOBA AT 12Z/WED AND WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EWD INTO NWRN ONTARIO. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED S/SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. TRAILING
PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL INTERSECT A SRN LEE CYCLONE INVOF THE
CO/KS BORDER. BULGING DRYLINE SHOULD ARC ACROSS PARTS OF W-CNTRL KS
SWD INTO WRN TX. PLAINS PORTION OF COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SWD
WED NIGHT.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
A SLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED INCREASE OF A MARGINALLY MOIST
AIR MASS FROM THE SRN PLAINS. SURFACE DEW POINTS BY WED AFTERNOON
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH DEEP LAYER SWLYS RESULTING IN A VERY WARM
EML OVERSPREADING THE REGION...WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AOA 10C
LIKELY REACHING SWRN MN TO WRN IA BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS STRONG CAP
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIAL DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS MOST PROBABLE TO THE N OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN PARTS OF
MN WHERE WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE EWD-MOVING
COLD FRONT.

IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ASCENT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY TO NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT IN WRN KS AS A SRN ROCKIES MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS ONTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...AMIDST
AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
MID-LEVEL SWLYS. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE IN S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS. WITH
DEEP-LAYER FLOW LARGELY PARALLELING THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ...MERGERS SHOULD LEAD TO AN ELONGATED COMPLEX OF
TSTMS. OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES GIVEN
RELATIVELY LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WITH SOME RISK FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/FRONT SURGES SWD. STILL...BOUTS OF
SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST AS SEVERAL CLUSTERS EVOLVE E/NEWD THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

...CAROLINAS...
COLD MID LEVEL POCKET /AROUND MINUS 14C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SHIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
WED. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK...MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENCOURAGE ROBUST
MULTICELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ON WED AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS/BUNTING.. 05/22/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.