DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161724
SWODY2
SPC AC 161723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S./GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL WSWLYS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND INTO FL.

FARTHER W...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH TIME...AS THE LARGER-SCALE RIDGE EXPANDS AHEAD OF A
STRONGER/SHARPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD/WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S./ERN GULF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

FARTHER W...LEE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WRN UPPER TROUGH.

...S FL...
AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CROSSES FL...INDUCING SUBTLE SURFACE
RESPONSE...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIURNALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF FL. WEAK LAPSE RATES -- AND THUS
MODEST CAPE -- IS EXPECTED...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...WITH ENHANCED WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...THIS MAY OFFSET THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY TO ALLOW A FEW ORGANIZED/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TO
EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 05/16/2012

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