DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171711
SWODY2
SPC AC 171710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE MAIN ERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FROM THE NERN U.S. AND
CROSSES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...A WEAKER/LINGERING UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN INVOF THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION
OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHILE A TROUGH ADVANCES STEADILY
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WRN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS AFFECTING THE
PLAINS STATES...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE ROCKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY
OVERTAKE THE LEE TROUGH...PROGRESSING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS...
DESPITE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...ELY/ENELY FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO -- ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF
PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSIONS -- WILL HINDER FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE PRE-FRONTAL PLAINS WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
DEEP/CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MARGINAL/HIGH-BASED CAPE DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD.

THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH MODEST /GENERALLY LESS
THAN 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS THAT ALONG
WITH LIMITED/ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE...A GENERAL LACK OF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IS ALSO LIKELY. STILL...WITH A GENERALLY DRY/DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED UNTIL THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING...POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVELY DRIVEN WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW
STRONGER CELLS SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF LOW /5%/ SEVERE PROBABILITY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE N CENTRAL CONUS.

LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
THE CONVECTION AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...BUT
AGAIN EXPECT ONLY LIMITED HAIL/WIND THREAT.

..GOSS.. 05/17/2012

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