ACUS48 KWNS 090831
SWOD48
SPC AC 090830
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2012
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NWRN MEX IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES AS A MUCH WEAKER/OPEN-WAVE
PERTURBATION DAYS 4-5/12TH-14TH...BECOMING ILL-DEFINED AMIDST
LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING OVER ERN CONUS. ANY RELATED SVR POTENTIAL
APPEARS TOO MRGL...CONDITIONAL AND POORLY FOCUSED FOR 30% RISK AREA.
FROM LATE DAY-4 THROUGH AT LEAST DAY-6/14TH-15TH...PATTERN ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO ONE DOMINATED BY HIGH HEIGHTS AND WEAK FLOW OVER
MOST OF WRN CONUS...AND MEAN TROUGHING IN ERN STATES. THIS RESULTS
IN TOO MUCH DISPLACEMENT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FROM SUBSTANTIAL
LOW-LEVEL THETAE TO SUPPORT WELL-ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.
..EDWARDS.. 05/09/2012
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