DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160842
SWOD48
SPC AC 160842

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST ON SAT/D4 FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH INCREASINGLY LIMITED PROSPECTS
THEREAFTER. ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE PERSISTS WITH HIGH CONTINUITY
AMONG THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND GEFS MEAN WITH THE DEPICTION OF A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS ON D4. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
E/SEWD...LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL PLAINS BY SAT
AFTERNOON. CONCERNS OVER WARM SECTOR MOISTURE RETURN DESCRIBED IN
THE D2/3 OUTLOOKS SUGGEST GFS/GEFS MEAN SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE
TO DISPLAY A HIGH BIAS. GFSX MOS AND THE ECMWF APPEAR MORE
REASONABLE WITH GENERALLY 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS. GIVEN THE
DAMPENING NATURE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MID-LEVEL FLOW NEARLY
PARALLELING THE SURFACE FRONT AND LIKELY ONLY MODERATE
BUOYANCY...SETUP DOES NOT RENDER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT
ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 05/16/2012

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