DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170851
SWOD48
SPC AC 170850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH HIGH CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE
FURTHER DAMPENING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS ON D4.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN PREVALENT ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...WEAKENING FLOW FIELDS WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT
WITH INDICATING A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE
NWRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT DISCREPANCIES WITH THE HANDLING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALONG WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH BECOME MORE APPARENT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A BROADER/MORE
RICHLY MOIST WARM SECTOR APPEARS MORE PROBABLE RELATIVE TO THE
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CNTRL STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL D7 AND BEYOND DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS LATTER TROUGH.

..GRAMS.. 05/17/2012

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