ACUS48 KWNS 210822
SWOD48
SPC AC 210821
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2012
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW WILL BE
SHUNTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. DURING THE DAY3-4 PERIOD
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE REGARDING INDIVIDUAL SHORT-WAVES BY
THURSDAY. THE GFS IS NOTABLY FASTER WITH AN EJECTING SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AT 25/00Z. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM EML
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
BEYOND DAY4...UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ERN CONUS WITH THE CENTER OF A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE TN VALLEY. IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CAN RETURN TO THE HIGH
PLAINS THEN STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THAT REGION.
..DARROW.. 05/21/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment