DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220822
SWOD48
SPC AC 220821

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF EJECTING SHORT-WAVES AS THEY TRAVERSE
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE PLAINS...ATOP A STRENGTHENING/BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE DOME...THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST ECMWF
AND GFS AGREE THAT A DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENSURE EJECTING
SHORT-WAVES WILL STRUGGLE TO INFLUENCE AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE
PLAINS BUT RATHER HAVE GREATER IMPACT ON AREAS CLOSER TO THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SERVE TO CAP
MUCH OF THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ALONG
NRN/ERN EDGE OF STRONG CAP WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONES...UNTIL
MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS CAN RETURN NWD INTO THE CNTRL U.S. WARM
SECTOR TSTMS MAY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE INFLUENCE OF SAID MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.

..DARROW.. 05/22/2012

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