DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230830
SWOD48
SPC AC 230829

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO EJECT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD THEN INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY DAY5. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE DOMINANT
TN VALLEY RIDGE. VERY WARM EML WILL EXPAND NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD WITH 14C AT 700MB EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SD
EARLY. ALONG THE NRN/ERN EDGE OF THIS WARM PLUME THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ROBUST ELEVATED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE SEVERE BUT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING CAP WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD. HOWEVER...MUCH STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EJECTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY FOCUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES EWD. SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT
SHOULD ERODE THE CAP ENABLING MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2012

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