MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0655

ACUS11 KWNS 020134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020133
WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-020230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0655
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0833 PM CDT TUE MAY 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IND...SRN OH...FAR NRN KY...WRN/CNTRL WV

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 218...222...

VALID 020133Z - 020230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 218...222...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS LOCATED FROM CNTRL IND INTO SRN OH ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AND POSE A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT. STORMS
ENTERING WRN WV WILL ENCOUNTER AN AIRMASS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EWD INTO CNTRL
WV...WHICH COULD REQUIRE SPATIAL EXPANSION OF WW 222 BY LOCAL WFO.

DISCUSSION...AT 0130Z...WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD FROM W-CNTRL IND
INTO FAR NRN KY...AND THEN CURVED BACK TO THE NE INTO FAR WRN WV.
SURFACE AIRMASS N OF THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN WORKED OVER EXTENSIVELY
BY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS...YIELDING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
NOW IN THE 60S. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG N OF THE FRONT...AND MAY SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST/BRIEF
TORNADO...GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCE VALUES FROM 40-50 KT.
FARTHER E OVER WV...SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 70 WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S. THIS IS ALLOWING A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER
THETA-E AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION...RLX
VWP SHOWS SHEAR PROFILES QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-1
KM SRH NEAR 200 M2 S-2 AND 0-6 KM BULK WIND DIFFERENCE IN EXCESS OF
40 KT. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SVR THREAT COULD SPREAD EWD FROM WRN
INTO CNTRL WV DURING THE NEXT HR OR TWO.

..GARNER.. 05/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 40738672 40318480 39928480 39918412 40278272 40248218
40208044 39488049 39127992 38538010 38088073 38278200
38188293 38508362 38438400 38578421 38548444 38348477
38668520 38918521 38928552 38748588 38688632 38688668
40738672

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