MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0755

ACUS11 KWNS 080247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080246
TXZ000-NMZ000-080415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX...FAR SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264...

VALID 080246Z - 080415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW 264 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z...BUT ELEVATED TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A RISK
FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE NEED FOR AN EXTENSION OR
ADDITIONAL WW IS UNCERTAIN.

DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE CORE WITHIN WW 264 WAS LOCATED IN GAINES
COUNTY TX WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE HAIL. FARTHER SW...A BROKEN LINE
OF CELLS HAS INTENSIFIED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR W TX WITH
FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT GIVEN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER NRN MEXICO. GIVEN 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST
DURING THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. LATEST NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH TIME...CELL
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS SHOULD LEAD TO DIFFICULTY IN MAINTAINING
ELEVATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE MARGINAL HAIL
POTENTIAL GIVEN MODEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG.

..GRAMS.. 05/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32490471 32900383 33060306 32950221 32820154 32400099
31380073 30530086 30010125 29810150 29840224 29870273
30220314 32490471

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