MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0763

ACUS11 KWNS 091532
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091532
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-091700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SC/FAR ERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091532Z - 091700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SC AND
ADJACENT AREAS...BUT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EWD ACROSS WRN SC AND EXTREME E CENTRAL GA ATTM...AIDED BY A BAND OF
WEAK ASCENT WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING ACROSS
THIS REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. THE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING ONLY MODEST
CAPE...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DUE TO MODEST LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER.
ALONG WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...A MODEST KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
IS ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA -- WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW
AOB 30 KT THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE.

AS STORMS CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD...WEAK/SLOW DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS COULD PERMIT A FEW STORMS TO BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL/WIND. HOWEVER...ATTM EXPECT THREAT TO
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 05/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 32808132 33008239 34778163 35438044 35327892 34397854
33198023 32808132

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.