MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0782

ACUS11 KWNS 110242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110242
TXZ000-110345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 273...

VALID 110242Z - 110345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 273 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW273. THE MAIN THREAT IS
EVOLVING TOWARD DMGG WINDS...THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 02Z INDICATES THAT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE TX/MEXICO BORDER SOUTH OF LAREDO
TO NEAR VICTORIA TO THE PALACIOS AREA. THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO EXHIBIT SWD MOTION. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS
COLD POOLS ELONGATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM WEBB TO SAN PATRICIO
COUNTIES AND CONVECTION PROPAGATES ESEWD INTO THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TX -- E.G. MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG PER CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE 00Z RAOBS. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SVR WINDS INTO THE SRN PARTS OF THE WW
AREA WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...WHILE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
250 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH PER CORPUS CHRISTI VWP DATA. THIS THREAT
WILL LIKELY EXTEND TOWARD THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST WITH
TIME...WHERE CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
WAA REGIME IN PLACE AMIDST APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE WW AREA...A WIND-SHIFT AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15
MILES ESE OF LAREDO NNEWD TO 35 MILES WSW OF TEMPLE. THE POSITION OF
THIS FEATURE IS BEING MODIFIED BY A QLCS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE
WW AREA. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW PER FORT HOOD VWP DATA SHOULD PROVIDE
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WAA AHEAD OF THE
QLCS...YIELDING MODEST DESTABILIZATION OF THE LEADING AIR MASS. THIS
COULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED FORWARD-PROPAGATION DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IF THE
NEAR-SFC LAYER CAN MODIFY/DESTABILIZE WITH TIME. THE WIND SHIFT AXIS
WILL DENOTE THE WRN EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT.

..COHEN.. 05/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 29409585 28759588 27989676 27339725 26689759 26669848
26789947 27319958 28309903 30259835 31099770 31079707
30499634 29409585

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