ACUS11 KWNS 161624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161624
NCZ000-161730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161624Z - 161730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLD WET MICROBURST OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS SCTD TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST ON SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.
DISCUSSION...LATE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DATA SHOW SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE SC GRAND STRAND NEWD TO
CAPE LOOKOUT WITHIN AN AGITATED CU FIELD. THE 12Z MHX RAOB
EXHIBITED STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /2500 J/KG MLCAPE/...AND THE
RAOB/S CONVECTIVE TEMP /77 DEG/ HAS ALREADY BEEN BREACHED AS 16Z
SURFACE OBS RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. FURTHER CONVECTIVE-SCALE
COLLISIONS AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CIRCULATIONS WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FOCUS/LIFT TO CONTINUALLY GENERATE STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE NEWD AROUND 25 KTS. A DEEP/MOISTURE RICH
TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE WITHIN MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR ISOLD
WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ADDITIONAL RISK
/LOW-ISOLD/ FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS AS WELL. THE LIMITED SPATIAL/MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A SEVERE WATCH.
..SMITH/HART.. 05/16/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34357888 36397623 36057520 35207540 33887848 34047874
34357888
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