MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0859

ACUS11 KWNS 212035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212035
MTZ000-212200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL/CNTRL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212035Z - 212200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MARGINALLY ORGANIZED FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS POSING A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/CNTRL MT. A WW IS NOT
LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 20Z SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 80S FROM SWRN INTO ERN MT...WITH 60S AND 70S MORE COMMON
OVER WRN INTO CNTRL MT. THIS SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S/ IS AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE VALUES FROM 250-500 J/KG. THIS DESTABILIZATION
IS RESULTING IN GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 15-20 KT LOW-LEVEL W-SWLY FLOW INCREASING TO
50 KT AT 5 KM AGL /PER TFX VWP/...FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THOUGH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR...MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/21/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 45990821 45321072 45281246 45971349 47141330 47881169
48170880 47640767 46800756 45990821

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.