MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0865

ACUS11 KWNS 221747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221746
GAZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-221845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221746Z - 221845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN
HALF OF GA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS UNDERGOES FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION. WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE
LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THAT COULD RESULT IN WW ISSUANCE
BEING GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATED CU/TCU INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM EAST
CENTRAL THROUGH NERN GA INTO UPSTATE SC. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED
MUCAPE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...WITH ADDITIONAL
DIABATIC HEATING AIDING IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTM...THE
AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT/
MIDLEVEL COLD ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO THE EWD MOVING MID-UPPER
LOW...NOW ADVANCING INTO WRN/CENTRAL GA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
SUGGEST UPDRAFTS SHOULD BECOME DEEPER/CONDUCIVE FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE MID-UPPER LOW...THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL INTO ERN SC WITH THESE AREAS
HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE NEED
FOR A WW. UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WIND FIELDS WITH BULK SHEAR OF 20-30
KT SUGGEST MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY STORM
MODES.

..PETERS/WEISS.. 05/22/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30878322 32518286 33698329 34118351 34488253 33948187
32758154 31718157 30918178 30588215 30408295 30878322

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