MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0877

ACUS11 KWNS 231716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231715
NCZ000-SCZ000-231815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231715Z - 231815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NWD FROM
CENTRAL SC INTO CENTRAL NC...WITH ACTIVITY TENDING TO MOVE NEWD/NWD
AFFECTING ERN PARTS OF THESE STATES AS WELL. ADDITIONAL TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A NWD MOVING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
/WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM ENEWD FROM 40 SW SOP TO 20 E FAY TO
10 NE EWN/. WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED...GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR SOME OF THE TSTMS TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE ANALYSES DURING THE MORNING SHOWED A
NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN SC NWD TO THE SC/NC
BORDER...NEAR 40 SW SOP...AND THEN FARTHER NNEWD THROUGH ERN VA TO
VICINITY OF DCA AND THEN THROUGH ERN PA. SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND
E OF THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN A CLEAR SLOT EXPANDING NWD ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/ERN NC PER SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVING
NWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG /WHICH WAS ALREADY INDICATED PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEPENING CU FIELD INVOF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AND COUPLED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW FIELD FROM NRN SC THROUGH CENTRAL
NC. STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL SLY WINDS/DEEP SHEAR ARE MAINLY
CONFINED ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE SC/NC COASTS TODAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE WEAKER SHEAR EXPECTED WITH WWD EXTENT...THE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXES OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
SUGGEST SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS/WEISS.. 05/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 33898121 34978008 36367914 36397737 36067625 35017678
34237805 33697892 33147951 32858008 33248088 33898121

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