MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0887

ACUS11 KWNS 241133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241133
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-241230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PART OF WI...A SMALL PART OF THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI...NERN IA...FAR SERN MN...FAR NWRN IL

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 241133Z - 241230Z

SUMMARY...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WILL OCCUR FOR A
LARGE PART OF WI...A SMALL PART OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...NERN
IA...FAR SERN MN...AND FAR NWRN IL WITH THE UPCOMING ISSUANCE OF THE
1300 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

DISCUSSION...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT WIDESPREAD SVR WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SQUALL LINE THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS LINE WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE DAY 1
CONVECTIVE PERIOD...AND WILL ALSO FEATURE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
AND SVR HAIL. THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF SVR WINDS WILL WARRANT THE
INCLUSION OF A MODERATE RISK IN THE UPCOMING 1300 UTC CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS
REGARDING THIS SCENARIO.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 46478868 45648775 44398793 43508876 42249026 42039197
43259303 45159224 46269057 46478868

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