ACUS11 KWNS 261044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261043
MNZ000-SDZ000-261215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/NERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SW/W CNTRL
MN...SERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261043Z - 261215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME STRONG...WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION...ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WARM AND MORE STRONGLY
CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING...THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 14-15Z. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH HAS NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
FAIRLY VIGOROUS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
AND STRONG CONVECTIVE LAYER SHEAR. OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
LIMITED.
..KERR/MEAD.. 05/26/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 44440021 45589939 45959641 45149505 44299520 43919679
44019853 44440021
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