MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0935

ACUS11 KWNS 281209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281209
NYZ000-281345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...LAKE ONTARIO INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281209Z - 281345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO THE SYRACUSE AND UTICA AREAS BY 14-16Z...BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO INTO THE LAKE ONTARIO AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DUE TO
FAIRLY MODEST INSTABILITY...LIKELY CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR...ACTIVITY
HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS. HOWEVER...STRONGER UPDRAFT
PULSES APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY ACCOMPANIED BY MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL. IT IS UNCLEAR FROM MODEL GUIDANCE HOW MUCH LONGER
FORCING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION WILL PERSIST...BUT...WITH EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AROUND 25 KT...ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE SYRACUSE
AND UTICA AREAS BY 14-16Z. IF STORMS SURVIVE THIS LONG...THEY COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO NEW...PERHAPS MORE VIGOROUS... BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE WITH
INSOLATION ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE...THE
CATSKILLS AND HUDSON VALLEY TOWARD MID DAY.

..KERR/MEAD.. 05/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 43857639 43607470 43277428 42847434 42587468 42577527
42627577 42937680 43417705 43867668 43857639

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