MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0936

ACUS11 KWNS 281501
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281500
GAZ000-FLZ000-281630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE GA...FAR NE FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281500Z - 281630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NE FL AND SERN GA. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PLACES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BERYL ABOUT 60 STATUTE MILES WEST OF JACKSONVILLE FL.
MESOANALYSIS DATA CURRENTLY SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
2.10 INCHES EXTENDING NEWD FROM BERYL'S CENTER ACROSS NE FL AND SE
GA WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW DISCRETE UPDRAFTS
TO EXHIBIT ROTATION. AS BERYL MOVES SLOWLY WWD...THE THREAT MAY
EXTEND FURTHER INLAND ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
RESULT IN SFC HEATING IN AREAS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
JACKSONVILLE. STORMS THAT ROTATE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF BERYL
THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 32238206 32308262 32218282 31938303 31578309 31288265
30948225 30348185 29938175 29818140 29978107 30518083
31178090 31938158 32238206

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