MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0937

ACUS11 KWNS 281520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281519
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-281615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL AND SERN NY...NERN PA...NRN NJ...SRN NEW
ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281519Z - 281615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POORLY ORGANIZED MCS OVER CNTRL NY MAY BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ESEWD. SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION WILL BE CAPABLE OF DMGG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER WAVE OBSERVED ON 15Z WV IMAGERY OVER W
CNTRL NY APPEARS TO HAVE EMANATED FROM SRN MN 24 HRS AGO. THE SUBTLE
WAVE HAS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CURRENTLY ELEVATED COMPLEX OF STORMS...NOW ORIENTED ACROSS
CNTRL NY. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WAVY STATIONARY FRONT FROM
SRN NEW ENGLAND TO APPROXIMATELY BUFFALO...AND SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF A BROADER ERN UPPER RIDGE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F AND A
LINGERING MOIST AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S F/ WILL ERODE REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST NEAR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE 17-18Z PERIOD...WITH A
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN DMGG WIND POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING
REFLECTS AN EWD ADVECTION OF THE EML...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...OCCASIONALLY ROTATING STORMS AND
SEMI-ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SURFACE-BASED STORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

..HURLBUT/CARBIN.. 05/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 42767507 42257338 41607289 41297326 41067416 40957508
41657623 42287616 42767507

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