MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0953

ACUS11 KWNS 291349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291348
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-291515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...NW PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291348Z - 291515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
LIKELY INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS STORMS INTENSIFY.

DISCUSSION...A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING
FROM SW ONTARIO SSWWD ACROSS WRN OH INTO NRN KY LOCATED ALONG THE
AXIS OF A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY. TO THE EAST OF THE STORMS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME CLEARING SUGGESTING THAT SFC TEMPS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
HELP GRADUALLY RAMP UP THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY SHOW 40 TO
45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL LINE-SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO BE PRESENT WITH THE SLOWER
MOVING STORMS.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 42087941 41948035 41138183 40648245 40108279 39688290
39408289 39238250 39408204 39948095 40457998 41037839
41717859 42087941

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