WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 287

WWUS20 KWNS 212029
SEL7
SPC WW 212029
NMZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-220400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM MDT MON MAY 21 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WEST TEXAS TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CLAYTON NEW MEXICO TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF CANNON AFB NEW MEXICO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL NM ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD/SEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND MUCAPE TO 2500 J/KG/. WIND PROFILES
EXHIBIT STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WITH LIGHT SELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO 20-30 KT NWLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS
WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY MOVE GROW UPSCALE INTO A SMALL MCS BY THIS
EVENING THAT MAY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO PARTS OF WEST TX.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.


...WEISS

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