DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 031313
SWODY1
SPC AC 031311

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 AM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

EXPANDED AREA INFORMATION IN ...NY/PA... SECTION AND CORRECTED GENL
TSTM AREA.

...KS/OK/MO/AR...
A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AS
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTION HAS TRAVERSED THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
REMNANT MCV NOW OVER EASTERN KS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO MO/AR TODAY PROVIDING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS ARE ERODING OVER
PARTS OF KS/OK WHERE STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND MOISTENING WILL
OCCUR. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A REGION OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND ONLY WEAK CAPPING. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE DIVERSE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK. EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION
WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL AR.

...NEB/IA...
THE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS ADDED COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER PARTS OF NEB/IA TODAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV WILL RETARD DAYTIME HEATING THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS ALSO BEEN AFFECTED OVER KS...WHICH MAY
ALSO AFFECT NORTHWARD TRANSPORT THROUGH THE DAY. FEW IF ANY
OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW INITIATE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
KS/NEB BORDER. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT
RISK IN THIS AREA.

...AR/MS/AL...
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS NOW MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST AR. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT THESE STORMS WILL
REJUVENATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THEY INTERACT WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALONG AND SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. STRONG
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL
STORMS.

A SECOND SCENARIO OF CONCERN FOR THIS REGION IS LATE TONIGHT.
SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS INITIATE STRONG STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
PARTS OF MS/TN/AL AND SPREAD THEM SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. POOR
DIURNAL TIMING WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
SCENARIO...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THE EVENT
THAT EITHER SITUATION DEVELOPS.

...NY/PA TO MID ATLANTIC...
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES TODAY...WITH -20C AT 500MB ACROSS PARTS OF NY/PA. DESPITE
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PA AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO PARTS OF MD/VA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE
STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

...MT...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MT. THESE STORMS WOULD
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. IF STORMS DO FORM...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD PROMOTE A RISK
OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OF LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

..HART/MOSIER.. 06/03/2012

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