DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

ACUS01 KWNS 061956
SWODY1
SPC AC 061956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2012

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE N CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CNTRL DAKOTAS...

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN SHAVED SLIGHTLY /FROM EAST TO
WEST/ ACROSS PARTS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE ELONGATED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RATON MESA AREA OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING HOW FAR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...NOW INITIATING ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...LATEST
RAPID REFRESH STILL SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY EVENING.
EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE MODEST IN
STRENGTH...A GRADUAL VEERING TO AN INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO EXIST SOUTHWARD INTO AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WHERE INITIATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO NOW
APPEARS UNDERWAY.

..KERR.. 06/06/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT WED JUN 06 2012/

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED REMAIN OVER THE NWRN US AS ONE
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX OVER CENTRAL MT LIFTS NWD
INTO CANADA...AND AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER OREGON MOVES INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY OCCLUDED LOW OVER SRN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE NWD...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARCING SWD ACROSS EXTREME NERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS THEN SWWD INTO CENTRAL
CO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY MAY MOVE WWD INTO SERN WY
AND NORTH CENTRAL CO AS PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOIST UPSLOPE SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS
DEVELOPING INTO THE FRONT RANGE. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN PLACE AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPE REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO PARTS OF
SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR
ALONG THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE SRN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL CO WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE
STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELL AND A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ALTHOUGH
THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY PERSISTENT
SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY EWD/NEWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 03Z.

...NRN PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MINIMAL AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS OVER WRN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL RESULT IN
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK
MID LEVEL WINDS/MINIMAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE AREA...A FEW
ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SRN PLAINS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NWRN TX...WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
BANDS CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CENTRAL OK.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FOCUSED MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES WILL FOSTER NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SRN GA/NRN FL...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OVER SRN GA AND NRN FL
BENEATH THE EDGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EVIDENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
SWD INTO NRN FL. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOCAL AREAS OF
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIALLY SUPPORT STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEST FLOW
ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

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