DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021630
SWODY1
SPC AC 021628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL AND ERN
MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...MT...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY CROSSING WA ATTM WILL
TRANSLATE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND ACT TO DAMPEN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SITUATED ACROSS MT/WY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE PW VALUES
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ARE ALREADY AOA 150 PCT OF NORMAL. VSBL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE ERN HALF OF MT AND NRN WY AND...DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL AID IN
MODEST DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND ADVANCE/REFORMATION OF ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC FRONT LATER TODAY. MLCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG AND INCREASING
WSWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM
ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FROM
ERN ID ACROSS NRN WY AND MUCH OF ERN MT. EXPECT A NUMBER OF CLUSTERS
OR BANDS OF STORMS TO SPREAD EAST DURING THIS PERIOD OF THE DAY WITH
A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO AN
INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH A SCATTERING OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND REPORTS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
SHOULD OCCUR OVER SCNTRL/ERN MT WITH MORE ISOLD SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE FROM ERN ID ACROSS NRN WY.

WHILE A RESULTING SMALL MCS OR TWO MAY SPREAD EAST INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...PARTLY SUSTAINED BY LIFT ON THE NOSE OF NOCTURNAL
LLJ...SEVERE HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONSTRAINED BY LACK OF INSTABILITY.

...CO TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
TYPICAL HIGH-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CO/NM THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AIDED BY A COUPLE OF WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. WEAK SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MOISTENING
ALONG RESIDUAL FRONT ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE SHOULD AID IN STORMS DEVELOPING EAST INTO AN EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND ABOUT
30KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. A FEW SUPERCELLS OR PERSISTENT MULTICELLS MAY
POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGH WINDS FROM ERN CO SWD ACROSS
ERN NM THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL MCS/S WITH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL
CONTINUING INTO WRN KS...NWRN TX/OK...INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

...MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST...
COLD AIR ALOFT AND DCVA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED
MID/UPPER JET MAX WILL PROVIDE WEAK ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION FROM
ERN MO ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY AS LARGE OCCLUDED CYCLONE LIFTS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN A NW-SE AXIS FROM SERN IA
ACROSS ERN MO TO CNTRL/SRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND LIFT
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW
PERSISTENT STORMS WHERE MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG.
SPC ENSEMBLE HAIL GUIDANCE FROM MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
REGION SUGGESTS THAT HAIL SIZE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA.

...RED RIVER/ARKLATEX...
THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN STORM SCALE GUIDANCE AND MORNING MODELS
THAT LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL/RETREATING
FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE RED RIVER...FROM NERN TX INTO AR. THIS
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY AN APPROACHING MCV ACROSS NWRN TX
ATTM...AS WELL AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
MID/UPPER JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MS VALLEY. AIRMASS ALONG THE
RETREATING BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE ON THE EDGE OF
THE CAP WITH MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. DEEP-LAYER
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS FORMING WITH TIME.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE THREAT AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING DEEPER
STRONGER ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION PRECLUDES HIGHER /SLGT RISK/
PROBS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SMALL SLGT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED
BY 20Z IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS WARRANT.

..CARBIN/COHEN.. 06/02/2012

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