DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051237
SWODY1
SPC AC 051236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MT/WY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...WY/MT...
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN
STATES...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER WESTERN NV. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED THIS AFTERNOON AND SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 70-80 KNOT MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT ROTATES ACROSS
PARTS OF WY/MT THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE
FEATURE SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR
A RISK OF A FEW FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN WY THIS
AFTERNOON. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. AS THE STORMS EMERGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CENTRAL
MT...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PROMOTE INCREASED STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. SUPERCELLS AND BOWS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WITH STORMS RACING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
BORDER. DAMAGING WINDS /INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS/ AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR
TWO.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM
PORTIONS OF MS/AL TO THE GA COAST. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR
IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS. A REMNANT
MCV NOW OVER SOUTHWEST AL WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION. OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

...TX...
A CONVECTIVELY-AIDED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED OVER WEST TX.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY.
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUT SEVERAL SLOW-MOVING INTENSE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

..HART/MOSIER.. 06/05/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.