DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061255
SWODY1
SPC AC 061254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT WED JUN 06 2012

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE WESTERN
STATES...WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. THE SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN AZ INTO
CENTRAL CO LATER TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF CO WILL HELP TO INDUCE A DENVER CYCLONE AND LIKELY LEAD TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING OVER NORTHEAST CO AND SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEB/KS AND SOUTHEAST WY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH LCL VALUES WILL BE A
MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT...BUT A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER SOUTH FL THIS
MORNING. EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HEATING WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS OVER NORTH FL...LIKELY RESULTING IN OTHER
STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY IN THAT AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH FL SHOW A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS AT MID
LEVELS...WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POCKETS OF MODERATE
CAPE WILL POSE SOME RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA TODAY.

...WEST TX...
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER WEST TX/OK TODAY. WEAK
CAPPING AND AREAS OF STRONG HEATING WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..HART/MOSIER.. 06/06/2012

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