DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231958
SWODY1
SPC AC 231956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
ONGOING FORECAST REASONING REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH ONLY
MINOR LINE TWEAKS TO BETTER REPRESENT OBSERVED CONVECTIVE TRENDS
THIS FORECAST. ASIDE FROM MINOR LINE ADJUSTMENTS...THE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE WILL BE THE ADDITION OF LOW /2%/ TORNADO
PROBABILITY TO PARTS OF SWRN FL AND THE KEYS.

...SWRN FL AND THE KEYS...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION INVOF THE SWRN FL
COAST...WITH A BAND OF STORMS MOVING NWD OUT OF CUBA TOWARD/INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FL KEYS. WITH LATEST KEY WEST VWP DATA SHOWING SOME
LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR...AND CORRESPONDING/WEAK CIRCULATIONS WITHIN
A FEW OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WARRANTS INCLUSION OF A 2% TORNADO
PROBABILITY LINE THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 06/23/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012/

...NERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN NY IS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 COUPLED WITH STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING IS RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE TO 1000
J/KG ATTM...WITH ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NERN NY INTO ME
AND ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EWD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE MCD 1251.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATE NWD ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. PERSISTENT
MOIST ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER MT HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE DEW POINTS
REACHING THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING INSTABILITY /MLCAPE REACHING 1000 J PER KG/ AS CLOUDS
THIN/DIMINISH AND DIABATIC HEATING INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. DIFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
WILL ENHANCE STORM INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURE TO DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CELLS...MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

...CAROLINAS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AMIDST VERY WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED AFTERNOON TSTMS. MID LEVEL
NWLY WINDS ARE GENERALLY AOB 20 KT SO THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE. HOWEVER...A FEW STORM MERGERS AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD LEAD TO INTENSE/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS OR
STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS AND WIND DAMAGE.

...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA BUT FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK GIVEN THE INTENSE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. WHILE ONLY WEAK
DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS
COULD AID STORM ORGANIZATION AND SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL FOR ANY
PERSISTENT STORM THAT DEVELOP.

...LOWER MO VALLEY REGION...
MOSAIC RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS AN MCV HAS DEVELOP OVER WRN IA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
STRONGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NERN
KS TOWARD NWRN MO. THIS CONVECTION MAY POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR NEW STORMS TO FORM IN
THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL CONVECTION OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA/NERN KS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A ZONE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. STRONGER CELLS MAY
ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WINDS

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