DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 011732
SWODY2
SPC AC 011731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN/SWRN OK...NWRN TX AND
TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS AND SERN CO...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC AND GREENLAND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF A GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE SWD EXTENDING TROUGH
OVER THE ERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD THROUGH
THE ERN DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SUN. FARTHER W...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATE DAY 1 WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.

...SWRN/WRN OK...NWRN TX AND TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS/SERN CO...
MODELS SUGGEST WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SRN OK EXTENDING WWD TO A
TRIPLE POINT ATTENDANT DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD FROM SWRN OK/ADJACENT
SERN TX PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON...WITH A SYNOPTIC LOW LOCATED ALONG
THE NM/TX BORDER. THE WARM FRONT MAY INITIALLY BE IDENTIFIED AS A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ON THE SRN EXTENT OF ONGOING TSTMS
OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO OK AT THE START OF DAY 2. DESPITE
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN TO ALONG AND S
OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8.5 C
PER KM/ SPREADING EWD ATOP THE MOISTENING/SURFACE HEATING WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MUCAPE 2000-3000 J
PER KG/.

DESPITE NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AIDING
IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAKER FORCING
ALOFT WITH SWD EXTENT...STRONGER SURFACE HEATING INTO SWRN OK/NWRN
TX SUGGESTS INHIBITION SHOULD BE REDUCED SUFFICIENTLY FOR AFTERNOON
TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE TRIPLE POINT AND EWD ALONG
THE WARM FRONT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...SOME VERY
LARGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN/SWRN OK WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE GREATEST...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...PART OF ERN ID/NWRN WY INTO CENTRAL/ERN MT...
VERY MODEST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION NEAR/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH 40 TO 50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED ACROSS
THIS REGION...DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET THE MODEST
INSTABILITY...ALLOWING A FEW STORMS TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME CAPABLE
OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ADVANCING TOWARD ERN MT...BEFORE
CONVECTION DIURNALLY WEAKENS.

..PETERS.. 06/01/2012

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