DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031731
SWODY2
SPC AC 031730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN ID
AND WRN/CENTRAL MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING DAY 2. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE AK CLOSED LOW WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD CA
BY 12Z MON SUPPORTING SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE AK LOW. FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION OF THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED ON MON AS A
CONSOLIDATED TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TITLED MOVING INLAND TO THE
GREAT BASIN AND NWRN STATES. A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD NWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AIDING IN THE FORMATION
OF A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW AND GREAT BASIN REGION THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A WARM
FRONT SHOULD RESIDE FROM SRN MT WWD INTO CENTRAL ID...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY MOVING NWD DURING DAY 2. IN THE SOUTHEAST...A
BACKDOOR-TYPE FRONT SAGS SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WRN
EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY MERGING WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE NEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL ACT TO
FOCUS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

...WRN/CENTRAL MT...CENTRAL/NRN ID...TO PARTS OF ERN WA/ORE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
EVOLVING FOR DAY 2...AS A VERY STRONG...NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...FAST/
DIFFLUENT SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD ID/MT THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS INLAND AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS FROM NRN NV TOWARD WRN/N CENTRAL MT...A DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT...BOTH ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS INVOF THE LOW/TRAILING COLD FRONT...AND
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS MT. WITH LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW ACROSS MT/NRN ID
N AND NE OF THE SURFACE LOW BENEATH THE FAST/DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION/ROTATION OF THE DEVELOPING
STORMS...WITH SEVERAL SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS...WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE INVOF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT...SUGGEST SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH A HAIL/WIND THREAT. A
TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AND SURFACE LOW. THE DEEP SLY FLOW FIELD SHOULD RESULT IN NWD STORM
MOTIONS. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
STORMS SPREAD EWD INTO CENTRAL MT.

FARTHER TO THE SW...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
ACROSS MORE OF CENTRAL/ERN ORE...GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS REGION
DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

...MID MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORM OF AN MCS
MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE TN
VALLEY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
PERSIST AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
EAST ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA AND SC. MODEST WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING/ORGANIZED STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO DEGREE
OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE AREAS GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD...THUS
LIMITING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE YET-TO-FORM MCS MOVING
INTO DAY 2.

THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NW INTO
SERN MO AND VICINITY...GIVEN MODEL INDICATION FOR ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR
SUPPORTING GREATER SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE.

..PETERS/CARBIN.. 06/03/2012

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