DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061711
SWODY2
SPC AC 061710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM TO TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF
BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN U.S...WITH RIDGING LINGERING IN
BETWEEN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...THE CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW DOES
APPEAR LIKELY. MEANWHILE...PERHAPS MORE PROMINENTLY... WITHIN THE
WESTERN TROUGHING...MODELS INDICATE THAT A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL DIG
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING
CIRCULATION LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND U.S. ROCKIES
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN APPEARS LIKELY TO
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THROUGH UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUING RISK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FOCUSED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH...FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF
COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAKER SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP BENEATH A LINGERING MID-LEVEL
COLD POOL ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.

ASSOCIATED WITH SEASONABLE INSTABILITY...STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN APPEARS MOST CERTAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...FRONT RANGE INTO NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...HIGH-LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY
DIVERGENT...WHILE A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
CONTINUES. GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONTINUED INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG UPDRAFTS...IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY
STRONGER STORMS...AND MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH
LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

...DAKOTAS...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. VARIABILITY EXISTS
CONCERNING A POSSIBLE EVOLVING FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS THE REGION... AND
THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF SHEAR IN ITS WARM SECTOR IS UNCLEAR.
HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT FORCING AND
DESTABILIZATION COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO A FOCUSED
AREA OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

..KERR.. 06/06/2012

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