DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141731
SWODY2
SPC AC 141729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS ON FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING OTHERWISE BUILDS AND BECOMES A
BIT MORE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
WITHIN THE NORTHERN TIER WESTERLIES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
NEAR BRITISH COLUMBIA/WA WILL STEADILY SPREAD EASTWARD/GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY AND REACH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...GRADUAL
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRIDAY EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
AS RAISED IN THE PRIOR DAY 2 OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION /AND THE DETAILS THEREOF/ ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF EXPECTED MCS/S LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NONETHELESS...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
TRAJECTORIES/MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MORE SUBSTANTIVE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SHOULD LEAD TO A SEVERE
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS WESTERN SD/BLACK HILLS
AREA...IN ADDITION TO NEAR THE NORTHEAST CO/FAR SOUTHEAST WY FRONT
RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS VICINITY. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
/40 KT/ COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN AREAS SUCH AS WESTERN SD. EVEN
WHILE WESTERLIES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AMPLE MOISTURE/VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
POTENTIAL FOR 30 TO PERHAPS 35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY ALLOW
FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELLS INITIALLY CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. ONE OR MORE MCS/S SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED HAIL/WIND THREAT SPREADING INTO AREAS SUCH AS WESTERN
KS/SOUTHWEST NEB AND/OR ACROSS WESTERN SD.

...MIDDLE MO VALLEY/CORN BELT TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT AN EARLY DAY MCS OR AT LEAST
PERIPHERAL REMNANTS THEREOF MAY BE INFLUENCES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO
RIVER VALLEY. FACTORS SUCH AS A MCV/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD
INFLUENCE ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE IS
OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS. IN ALL...NOTHING BEYOND A
LOCALIZED/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND THREAT IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...SUCH THAT ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE
MAINTAINED.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL...
WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT...A
FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 06/14/2012

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