DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151730
SWODY2
SPC AC 151729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
TO LOWER MO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY/LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY...

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
PRIMARY TSTM/ASSOCIATED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
REFOCUS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY IN
TANDEM WITH A COLD FRONT...AS EFFECTIVELY DEFINED BY THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW. THIS SOUTHWARD-SHUNTING SCENARIO WILL PROGRESSIVELY
DISTANCE ANTICIPATED DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHERN TIER MID/HIGH
LEVEL WESTERLIES...ALTHOUGH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /2000-3000 J
PER KG MLCAPE/ IS ANTICIPATED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
NEAR-EFFECTIVE FRONT ASIDE...DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO
BE AIDED BY DEVELOPING/INCREASING UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT BY SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EVEN SO...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE MODEST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EVEN WHILE WINDS VEER IN THE LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERE.

IN ALL...A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH A SUFFICIENT COLLOCATION OF VERTICAL
SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THE EFFECTIVE FRONT COULD AT LEAST
YIELD SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

...EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST WI/WESTERN UP OF MI...
AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING/EVENTUALLY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS/STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL CROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND ADJACENT PARTS OF MN/WI/MI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DESTABILIZATION MAY REMAIN
MODEST OVERALL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR SOME
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS. AS SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED WHAT
IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE A MARGINAL SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE
REGION FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/SOME HAIL POTENTIAL MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..GUYER.. 06/15/2012

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