DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171731
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BOUT OF FLATTER/ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS...THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL REAMPLIFY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS/ADJACENT
CANADA ON MONDAY. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PORTION OF POLAR JET WILL
SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
ADJACENT UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE A SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA/ AMPLIFIES OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. AN INTENSIFYING/EXPANDING UPPER
RIDGE WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN CONUS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN MCS /MUCH OF IT ELEVATED AND GENERALLY
NON-SEVERE/ OR ASSOCIATED REMNANTS THEREOF WILL BE IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF LAKE MI POTENTIALLY INCLUDING ADJACENT WI/MI MONDAY
MORNING. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS COULD PERSIST/REFOCUS SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH AT LEAST SOME ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIND
DAMAGE/SEVERE HAIL BEING POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS SCENARIO.

POTENTIAL FOR SUBSEQUENT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY WILL OTHERWISE FOCUS FARTHER
WEST ACROSS WI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN/IA ALONG A COLD
FRONT. STRONG BUT RELATIVELY NEBULOUS WESTERLIES WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE/ADJACENT WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY
WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WI INTO IA/NORTHERN IL
WHERE MID-LEVEL WARMING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. WHILE THE
EXTENT/LIKELIHOOD IS ESPECIALLY UNCERTAIN PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...COMBINED WITH AMPLE VERTICAL
SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD INCLUDE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL/PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES ASIDE FROM WIND DAMAGE.

...NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
MONDAY. APPRECIABLE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT MIGRATES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
REGION ESPECIALLY THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD IN TANDEM WITH A WARM
FRONT. WHILE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN IS UNLIKELY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION COULD OCCUR IN AREAS SUCH
AS WESTERN SD/BLACK HILLS VICINITY AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PARTS OF
EASTERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE. TSTMS SHOULD OTHERWISE NOCTURNALLY
INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH BOUTS OF
SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME WIND POSSIBLE /IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE
WARM FRONT/.

...UPPER OH VALLEY TO APPALACHIANS...
WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME AMID THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
RIDGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-AIDED TSTMS MAY POSE A
LOCALIZED RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE/MARGINAL HAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 06/17/2012

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