DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181724
SWODY2
SPC AC 181722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NERN NEB...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FCST TO MOVE ACROSS NRN PLAINS BEFORE
LIFTING NEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY 2 TIME
FRAME. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NERN NEB...
A COMPLEX OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z TUE ACROSS THE ERN
DAKS/WRN MN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND THESE STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN MN DURING THE DAY AS ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD AND EXTENDS EWD INTO NRN WI BY LATE AFTN. TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD AND EXTEND SWD FROM SFC LOW INTO NWRN
IA/ERN NEB BY LATE AFTN. A PRONOUNCED EML WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
MID-AFTN...HOWEVER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ALLOW WARM-SECTOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTN NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO NEB. THE ENVIRONMENT
IN THIS AREA WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE SFC LOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM
MN INTO NRN WI DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

...NERN US...
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FCST TO INCREASE TUESDAY FROM
NRN NY NWD INTO WRN MAINE AS STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER...STG HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..BUNTING.. 06/18/2012

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