DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 191727
SWODY2
SPC AC 191726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR UPPER MI AND NRN/CNTRL
WI...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SWRN CANADA/NWRN CONUS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE S-CNTRL CANADA/N-CNTRL CONUS BY EARLY THU.
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL EJECT ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...EXTENDING SWWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT EWD IN THE ERN CONUS.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER/MID-MO VALLEY...
WITH TSTM CLUSTERS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z/WED IN PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEB...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
MODEST...SURFACE HEATING AMIDST MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE BUOYANCY. WHILE A RATHER
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET CORE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE N-CNTRL CONUS...IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF INTENSE SWLYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. STILL...MODERATELY STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES SHOULD EXIST IN THE IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IN
UPPER MI TO NRN/CNTRL WI. THUS...GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS EXISTS HERE WHERE A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED WITH A
PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SWRN EXTENT...PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKER FLOW AND ILL-DEFINED HODOGRAPHS /FLOW POTENTIALLY DECREASING
WITH HEIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS/ SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL BE MARGINAL.

...NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NEWD IN
NEW ENGLAND. FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS RATHER NEBULOUS IN THE
BUILDING WARM SECTOR...BUT A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONG
BUOYANCY/SHEAR SHOULD EXIST WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A RELATIVELY
NARROW NW/SE-CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
TSTMS APPEARS LOW...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WILL
EXIST SHOULD TSTMS FORM.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP WED
EVENING/NIGHT ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD STALL INVOF RATON MESA. ALTHOUGH HIGHER-LEVEL W/NWLYS SHOULD
BE MODEST...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN A WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.

..GRAMS.. 06/19/2012

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