DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 281716
SWODY2
SPC AC 281714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WITH RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN MT. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH AND FAST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK BOUNDARY AND AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
EXTEND FROM SERN MT EWD ACROSS SD...SRN MN AND IA...CONTINUING SEWD
TO THE MID ATLANTIC AREA.

TO THE E...A LEAD SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER TROUGH WILL
AFFECT THE NERN STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SFC TROUGH FROM
ME INTO SERN NEW ENGLAND HELPING TO FOCUS CONVECTION.

...SD SEWD INTO WV...
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE NO LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. EARLY STORMS MAY BE ONGOING
FROM SD INTO IA ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE DIFFUSE
SURFACE FRONT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT HAIL. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY
INCONSISTENT WITH DAYTIME EVOLUTION...BUT GIVEN LACK OF
FORCING...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM SUGGEST A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING AFTER
03Z FROM SRN MN/IA EWD INTO NRN IL. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE
STRONGER AND WILL SUPPORT UPWARD MOTION...CAPPING WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

...NEW ENGLAND...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION EARLY...WITH SWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. A FEW EARLY STORMS MAY EXIST ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS MARGINAL HAIL...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER ME IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER VORTICITY AXIS LATER IN THE DAY.
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL. HODOGRAPHS
MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING CELLS.

FARTHER S INTO SERN NEW ENGLAND...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE
OCCURRING TOO EARLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WITH SOME
DRYING ALOFT AFTER 18Z. IF THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES JUST A BIT
SLOWER...THE BOSTON AREA COULD SEE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE.

..JEWELL.. 06/28/2012

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