ACUS48 KWNS 090842
SWOD48
SPC AC 090842
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT SAT JUN 09 2012
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DAMPENING THE CONUS
PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON D4. MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN PLAINS.
A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN SHOULD EXIST IN MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH
MID-WEEK...BEFORE INCONSISTENCIES DEVELOP BY THU/D6. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS/CMC AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN WITH DEPICTING A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IN THE N-CNTRL
CONUS/PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN A ONE-DAY
SPIKE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY...IT
REMAINS TOO EARLY TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT.
..GRAMS.. 06/09/2012
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